Five year prediction of Sea Surface Temperature in the Tropical Atlantic: a comparison of simple statistical methods
نویسنده
چکیده
We are developing schemes that predict future hurricane numbers by first predicting future sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and then apply the observed statistical relationship between SST and hurricane numbers. As part of this overall goal, in this study we compare the historical performance of three simple statistical methods for making five-year SST forecasts. We also present SST forecasts for 2006-2010 using these methods and compare them to forecasts made from two structural time series models.
منابع مشابه
Five year ahead prediction of Sea Surface Temperature in the Tropical Atlantic: a comparison between IPCC climate models and simple statistical methods
There is a clear positive correlation between boreal summer tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature and annual hurricane numbers. This motivates the idea of trying to predict the sea-surface temperature in order to be able to predict future hurricane activity. In previous work we have used simple statistical methods to make 5 year predictions of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures for ...
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تاریخ انتشار 2008